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cmiles8 2 hours ago [-]
Probably the bigger headline here is that they’ve blown past OpenAI in revenue and valuation, with OpenAI looking increasingly shaky and vulnerable.
Aurornis 1 hours ago [-]
Their valuations differ by about 13%. That's close enough that I wouldn't call it "blown past".
Things change fast in this space. Anthropic had a big boost from having the premier coding model for a while, but GPT-5.5 has closed that gap at a time when a lot of Anthropic customers are looking for cheaper alternatives.
Anthropic is coming off of a recent change to their enterprise billing that substantially changed the pricing for many users. They were smart to do the fundraising before the effects of that change could fully propagate.
cmiles8 1 hours ago [-]
The acceleration rate has been extraordinary… they went from mostly unknown outside AI circles to the number one player almost overnight. If that’s not “blown past” I don’t know what is.
jmathai 44 minutes ago [-]
The branding of Claude is so much stronger than ChatGPT. Even Anthropic is such better branding than OpenAI (especially considering they're not open at all).
My wife knows about Claude because that's what I use and we pay for. She uses it also as a result. And inevitably she will talk about Claude to her friends.
Marciplan 13 minutes ago [-]
for normies it is the exact opposite.
tredre3 21 minutes ago [-]
> The branding of Claude is so much stronger than ChatGPT.
Absolutely not, you live in a bubble. Everybody knows about ChatGPT.
Few non-programmers have heard of anthropic or claude, nor do they care. But they all know what ChatGPT is.
bbg2401 21 minutes ago [-]
OpenAI is as open as Anthropic is anthropic.
pavlov 37 minutes ago [-]
I remember seeing expensive multi-page ads for Claude in the New Yorker over a year ago.
Their marketing has been working the high end of the “regular people” market for a good while.
baal80spam 1 hours ago [-]
Do ordinary people really know what Anthropic is?
__s 1 hours ago [-]
They know that "claude's the good one"
linuxftw 7 minutes ago [-]
Of course not. Normal people are using gemini, it comes pre-installed on Android now.
cmiles8 59 minutes ago [-]
They know the cool kids have ditched OpenAI and now use Claude
postalrat 43 minutes ago [-]
They certainly know claude. I keep telling them they are all about the same.
pembrook 31 minutes ago [-]
Ironically their tussle with the US federal government is what made them a household name [1]
There's no better way to create awareness of a brand than to get it featured in the most popular reality TV show globally at the moment: "Thing Trump Did: Season 2."
Deepseek perhaps would be the top threat on a pure price/performance metric for either of them. It doesn't look like OAI is going for the value play .
gruez 4 minutes ago [-]
Comparing $/MTokfor models makes as much sense as comparing $/ghz for CPUs. Models have different tokenizers and take varying number of "thinking" to get to a solution. A far better proxy is how much it takes to do a run, which takes all of that into account. Such metrics are much harder to gather, but once source claims $3357 for gpt-5.5 vs $4686 for opus, the opposite of your conclusion.
Most variants of GPT-5.5 are less chatty and token-intensive than Opus 4.8/4.7, so despite the output token price being higher, it generates fewer tokens, so the net cost is lower.
Per-token pricing is totally sensible from the provider-perspective on mapping COGS to revenue, but for a consumer, different models will produce more or less tokens, meaning the cost calculation is multi-dimensional.
dyauspitr 30 seconds ago [-]
Having used Codex though I don’t think OpenAI needs to worry. It’s a solid product and they will share the market.
alecco 1 hours ago [-]
Anthropic is at the mercy of 3rd party datacenter contracts. AFAIK OpenAI will soon run mostly on on their own GPUs.
I don't like Altman and I am still upset about his memory deal last year but he prepared for the current shortages months before anybody else. Meanwhile, Anthropic seems to lack any plans besides third party contracting. IMHO they got very lucky with xAI and Google having spare capacity and willing to rent it. But what about next year?
lumost 1 hours ago [-]
Which also leaves OpenAI vulnerable to NVidia's aggressive pricing. To my knowledge Anthropic is relatively well positioned across multiple compute vendors/hardware providers.
abirch 41 minutes ago [-]
It also leaves OpenAI vulnerable to any GPU breakthroughs. You could imagine company X comes up with a XPU that is 100% faster than what's currently there.*
* NVidia GPU, Google TPU, Apple SoC, etc.
karmasimida 19 minutes ago [-]
You have missed the point
Nvidia has probably monopolized several upstream supplies to manufacture critical chip components for next 2 years, the HBMs and Optics component from LITE, as well as TSM capacity. Let alone those power components they funded themselves.
Let's say you have a genius design, but you will have it close to impossible to compete with Nvidia in getting it to volumes.
Jensen is a player, he isn't fooling around with all these Asian trips just to wine and dine
jiveturkey 22 minutes ago [-]
We are still in the short-half-life phase of GPUs. If a 2x faster GPU is on the horizon, why wouldn't OpenAI already be in line to buy? They aren't buying just 1, they are buying multiple datacenters' worth. So they wouldn't be a low priority, back of the line customer.
A short half-life means you are going to quickly dispose of what you have now, anyway. In fact most current datacenters can't even handle Vera Rubin, so I don't think there's short term risk here.
manquer 20 minutes ago [-]
> their own GPUs
Everyone has critical risk on multiple parts of the supply chain. GPUs and Memory are just things OAI mitigated for.
Power - Bigger bottleneck than GPU or RAM perhaps, New Grid connected capacity is typically 10+ year timescale with lot of regulatory friction. Captive capacity is also quite constrained - now Gas turbines have 7+ year wait time.
There are plenty of hard constraints that OAI cannot easily solve either.
dopa42365 1 hours ago [-]
The same 3rd party datacenters from the same few companies that everything else runs on? If there's demand, hyperscalers will supply.
llm_nerd 2 minutes ago [-]
>Anthropic is at the mercy of 3rd party datacenter contracts
I mean, this is a bit like complaining that McDonalds doesn't have their own herds of cows. OpenAI actually isn't in the business of buying GPUs or running data centres, and it's pretty weird to think that's an advantage (though it comes up constantly on here, as Anthropic keeps eating OpenAI's lunch).
There are many suppliers that are desperate to fight for Anthropics business, and it has shown an agility to embrace whatever advances in the industry come along. Anthropic is now running across a million or so Google TPUv8s, for instance. If tomorrow someone else comes out with a better GPU, they can embrace it in a heartbeat.
All while OpenAI sits on their rapidly depreciating GPUs.
Or...actually they won't, because OpenAI doesn't take business advice from HN. The vast majority of OpenAI's compute is from Microsoft, Oracle and so on. They're smart enough to not become a big hardware purchaser when that isn't their business. The core claim of your comment simply isn't true at all, nor is that the direction OpenAI is moving.
thereitgoes456 1 hours ago [-]
Stargate is not real.
It is not clear that running one's own datacenter is a competitive advantage. Why do you think OpenAI can handle that?
Gomotono 1 hours ago [-]
Stargate as a project is real, they only stoped the Stargate UK thing.
Anthropics relativ longterm contract with xAI def shows that they can fill the capacity vs Musk not. OpenAI and Anthropic are both using a lot of capacity so its fair to say that this is an advantage.
If they stay very close competitive (which they are), your own datacenter does reduce token price.
CuriouslyC 27 minutes ago [-]
Anthropic is riding a hype wave as a result of brilliant marketing. OpenAI has the better products, higher reliability and better community relations. I don't expect the situation to continue.
hereme888 26 minutes ago [-]
I agree
karmasimida 29 minutes ago [-]
OpenAI isn't shaky or vulnerable, this market will need at least 2 players.
I see most of the surge here comes FOMO AI spending which will have to be dialed down later half of the year, otherwise those companies will have to layoff to fund their AI bill, which is harmful to their business.
Anthropic grabs its bag at the peak, but feast is over.
andy_ppp 1 hours ago [-]
I wonder if being consistently candid is a superior business strategy?
wslh 1 hours ago [-]
This business and financial race is probably the craziest in human history, so zig-zags are expected. One company may take advantage on one curve while another is stuck in the pits.
ignoramous 2 hours ago [-]
How? OpenAI and Antrophic are basically the Big 2 racing away at light speed; the others who can't get near them are perhaps shaky & vulnerable. And sure, there's a garden full of those.
cmiles8 2 hours ago [-]
Because the market almost certainly can’t support two foundation model labs given the increasingly little difference across models and the massive sums of cash required to keep it all going. There is no big 2, just a race to survive and be the big 1.
treis 36 minutes ago [-]
There's at least two markets here. Consumer ad driven and worker augmentation markets. Likely a 3rd as a backend infrastructure provider to a bunch of value add companies.
I think Google has caught up enough to certainly be a player in the consumer ad driven market.
I also don't think only one foundation model adds up. Now that the trail is blazed a dozen companies can likely make a good enough model. The question is if there's a moat to make it winner take all
dchftcs 1 hours ago [-]
China will make sure they have a frontier lab, there's plenty of chance for Google to catch up once the compute crunch gets more serious.
solenoid0937 2 hours ago [-]
Disagree, both are coexisting fine today.
claytongulick 51 minutes ago [-]
A series "H" for $65 billion and no path to profitability is existing fine?
solenoid0937 12 minutes ago [-]
Sure, if you think there is even a small chance that OpenAI and Anthropic will get to AGI, it's practically a bargain.
They don't seem too far off to me.
1 hours ago [-]
an0malous 1 hours ago [-]
It probably can't support any because there's no moat and smaller, open source models are catching up. This is like investing $1T into mainframe computers in 1980.
dotcoma 40 minutes ago [-]
isn't Google going to win the race anyway ?
watwut 45 minutes ago [-]
If it cant support two competing compamies, something is very wrong. Oligopoly is bad, monopoly worst.
Well functioning market is supposed to have many, as in a lot, companies with similar products. To create competition.
andriy_koval 1 hours ago [-]
Google likely has its market share too, you can track how fast Cloud revenue increased.
decimalenough 7 minutes ago [-]
It's a gold rush and Google is both selling shovels and digging for gold itself.
henry2023 1 hours ago [-]
“Caballo que alcanza, gana”
fontain 2 hours ago [-]
I’m not so sure. We only need to look at Uber’s example of companies realizing they’re spending way too much and trying to rein it in. Claude has excellent revenue but it is highly dependent on very rich technology companies continuing to spend lavishly without seeing returns. The music will stop at some point and Anthropic will be hit the hardest. OpenAI may have less revenue but it is distributed across many, many more customers and use cases, it’s resilient. And even if Anthropic do, somehow, manage to keep their customers spending huge amounts on Claude, they’re very vulnerable to being undercut by OpenAI given codex is pretty much at parity. Anthropic seems more vulnerable to me.
Archonical 2 hours ago [-]
I think it's somewhat guaranteed that the music will at least die down a little bit. We saw this with cloud companies being bitten by cloud cost optimization initiatives. I can't imagine we won't see the same with AI, especially as the workforce stops trying to tokenmaxx to save their role.
Gomotono 2 hours ago [-]
If you look at the adoption curve of Claude, I don't think we have reached anything near peak.
Analemma_ 2 hours ago [-]
Every week there's at least one post on the HN front page bitching about API errors from Claude because Anthropic doesn't have enough serving capacity. I really don't see any signs they're "spending too much", the actual evidence on the ground seems to be exactly the opposite: constant exasperation that they're not spending enough.
CuriouslyC 25 minutes ago [-]
Unlike OpenAI, a lot of Claude's infra problems are self-inflicted and not completely raw-capacity related.
newaccountman2 2 hours ago [-]
What he means is the customers realizing they are spending too much on Anthropic.
claytongulick 44 minutes ago [-]
I just finished talking to a dev manager friend of mine at a household name company.
He told me they are massively pulling back on the AI stuff.
Right now the lashback is about cost, because that's the most easily measured pain point.
Soon, we'll start seeing a deeper understanding of the quality issues. At that point, it's likely this whole experiment gets firmly put in a bin of the toolbox where it belongs.
icedchai 14 minutes ago [-]
I know people at medium size companies where they are tracking AI costs very carefully. They are pulling back to levels under $100/week in AI spend per engineer, encouraging use of lower quality, lower cost models, etc.
decimalenough 3 minutes ago [-]
I don't doubt you, but $100 is approximately the cost to company of one hour of dev time. If companies end up being willing to spend only 2% of their dev budget on AI, this bubble is not going to last long.
fontain 2 hours ago [-]
I mean Anthropic’s customers are spending too much on Claude. Anthropic’s customers are encouraging tokenmaxxing amongst their employees; measuring employees by token usage. That’s great for Anthropic’s short term revenue numbers but terrible long term because at some point companies will realize tokenmaxxing is not good. OpenAI is much less exposed to tokenmaxxing, which is a good thing.
solenoid0937 1 hours ago [-]
> at some point companies will realize tokenmaxxing is not good
Why? Have we figured out the limits of what agents can do?
> OpenAI is much less exposed to tokenmaxxing
I don't think this is true, from my own experience & chatting with my acquaintances.
fontain 1 hours ago [-]
Tokenmaxxing is the practice of measuring employees by how many tokens they use, encouraging employees to burn tokens needlessly, it is unrelated to what agents can do.
If a task can be completed with 100k tokens but employees are considered better performers if they complete it with 500k tokens instead… that’s unsustainable and cannot possibly benefit Anthropic in the long term.
At some point, Amazon and Uber and so on and so forth are going to realize that actually, employees using 100k tokens or even 50k tokens is better than 500k and Anthropic’s revenue will fall off a cliff.
solenoid0937 29 minutes ago [-]
Oh. I thought tokenmaxxing was just removing token limits
fontain 6 minutes ago [-]
I think removing limits is fine. There’ll be overspend and at some point adjustments in expectations as we learn more about the value that can be delivered which will likely result in a reduction in spend, but even now, during this period of relative immaturity about measuring the value of output, so long as more tokens = more output, I don’t think the introduction of limits represents much of a risk to Anthropic and OpenAI. Tokenmaxxing is uniquely bad because it is not tied to any additional value (more tokens for the same output).
And I could be wrong about tokenmaxxing being a Claude specific problem but as far as I can tell, all of the major companies encouraging employees to maximize their token usage are Claude Code users. And the music has to stop on that at some point, whether because the companies run out of money or because they learn better ways of measuring productivity in the AI age. And if tokenmaxxing is what is driving Anthropic’s lead in revenue, it could be catastrophic to lose that, because Anthropic are spending billions of dollars per month on the infrastructure to support it.
If tokenmaxxing is evenly distributed between Anthropic and OpenAI then they’ll both hurt but equal hurt shouldn’t disadvantage either much.
2 hours ago [-]
ripvanwinkle 2 hours ago [-]
[dead]
maxnevermind 31 minutes ago [-]
What is this, Series for ants? It barely covers Andrej's sign-on bonus.
GenerWork 2 hours ago [-]
As someone who knows admittedly knows nothing about startup funding rounds, how many more rounds of funding can they do before an IPO? Is it effectively infinite?
tomwheeler 2 hours ago [-]
Effectively infinite. Databricks is a good example. They're still private after 13 years and closed a Series L round last year. Stripe is similar.
Having been through an IPO before, it was good for employee liquidity, but bad for the culture and long-term success of the company.
charlie0 2 hours ago [-]
Dead capital. There's no need for public funding until they are reasy to cash out at the top, if ever.
solenoid0937 1 hours ago [-]
How do investors cash out? Do they sell to new round investors?
barbarr 36 minutes ago [-]
Going off the other reply, I wonder if a highly-active secondary market means that companies can raise series [A-Z]+ rounds effectively forever, where each "round" just refers to a giant purchase of shares under strict company supervision. Is this the new game for startups?
bix6 1 hours ago [-]
Correct. There is also a secondary market.
misiti3780 2 hours ago [-]
so how do stripe employees get liquidity? can anyone sell their secondary shares?
tomwheeler 2 hours ago [-]
I can't speak for the specific case of Stripe, but it's fairly common for private companies to have a "tender offer" in which employees have the opportunity to sell some portion of their equity. This is often done in conjunction with a new investment round.
There's a newish term for this: RLO, Recurring Liquidity Opportunity. These are tender offers at some recurring interval. Even some companies that have a shorter lifespan (say 7 years) offer this.
(secondary markets are sometimes an option, depending on stock transfer restrictions)
vanuatu 25 minutes ago [-]
regular tender offers
newaccountman2 2 hours ago [-]
Private/secondary markets.
clint 2 hours ago [-]
Stripe might buy back the shares at a good price. They might be able to sell on secondary markets.
toasty228 28 minutes ago [-]
Once they reach series Z does it go back to A or do we get a new format like AA, AB ?
Npovview 9 minutes ago [-]
We live in Unicode times. We switch to Greek alphabets.
α β γ δ ε ζ η θ ι κ λ μ ν ξ ο π ρ σ τ υ φ χ ψ ω
tomwheeler 2 minutes ago [-]
After those are used up, it moves to Devanagari, Hangul, Katakana, Hiragana, and then Kanji.
dkdcdev 2 hours ago [-]
I believe the canonical example is Databricks on round L
nerdsniper 2 hours ago [-]
I believe Databricks series L round raised $4B in late 2025, but earlier this year they raised another $5B so technically they've maybe completed series M round and are "on" series N round now? The press releases are a bit confusing to me.
tomwheeler 2 hours ago [-]
It's semantics, but the latest raise might have been a follow-on to Series M, not a new round (to be clear, I know nothing about their finances, just speaking from experience at another company).
jmathai 2 hours ago [-]
I imagine there are ways for existing investors to achieve liquidity while still raising venture funding. But an IPO is "the" liquidity event and I imagine there will be pressure from investors for that.
I also imagine that venture funding rounds have a lower ceiling than the public markets - but at these rounds I'm not so sure!
ielillo 2 hours ago [-]
usually you would go through seed funding, the series a,b, and possibly a1 and b1. If you entered c or d territory it meant that you still had a chance but vc would be following you very closely. After d, you could raise money, but it would be under very unfavorable conditions
wina 2 hours ago [-]
they can do as many as they want. but at some point investors need/want to exit their positions and push for an IPO. That point is different for every company.
rvz 2 hours ago [-]
Depends on the investors if they see growth. The downside is dilution. Preferably they just want the Series I as the IPO in this case.
They cannot raise forever, SpaceX has done more rounds but the timing is most important.
re-thc 2 hours ago [-]
Yes, whatever you like
topherPedersen 1 hours ago [-]
Anthropic has a great product, but what's going on in the stock market is astonishing. Companies waiting to be valued at a trillion dollars before going public? (I'm writing this comment with the assumption that they will go public soon and the valuation will be higher than this $965 billion dollar private valuation) The stock market used to be a place for companies to raise money from investors. But that isn't what it is anymore, it's a dumping ground. Venture capitalists & private investors are sucking all of the possible growth and future upside from these companies and then dumping them on retail investors when there's nothing left. There is no growth or upside left by the time these companies go public. If you invest in these IPOs you are buying the absolute peak with all potential future profits baked into the price, with nowhere left to go but down.
taude 1 hours ago [-]
Yeup, no shortage of tech IPOs over the past five years that are now valued at like 5% of what they were after being dumped onto the market: ZoomInfo, Bumble, Gemini
And many more that are 50% of what they were: Snowflake, Coinbase
And many more that went back to private companies and then were sold off: Carbon Black, etc...
I'm actually too lazy to go list out all of them.
But employees, beware, of those gnarly lockup periods post IPO where all the better classed options than yours get to exit.
onlyrealcuzzo 1 hours ago [-]
> But that isn't what it is anymore, it's a dumping ground.
We got "dumped" Google and Facebook, so... Those probably made up for all the other "dumps".
We also got "dumped" TSLA, which is meme-ing in the trillions at the moment.
You can short Anthropic at IPO if you want...
38 minutes ago [-]
NewJazz 43 minutes ago [-]
Google IPO 20 years ago, Tesla 15 years ago, facebook almost 15 years ago.
Situations change.
onlyrealcuzzo 32 minutes ago [-]
When did they change? 3 years and 4 months ago? 1 year ago? 8 years?
Because when Facebook IPO'd everyone was saying the stock market was a dumping ground...
Same with Google...
Same with Pets.com and WebVan...
Npovview 4 minutes ago [-]
Few Pheonix(s) rise from the ashes of many Unicorns.
signatoremo 32 minutes ago [-]
Maybe but can you elaborate what the changes are?
surgical_fire 15 minutes ago [-]
Or he can just steer clear of the eventual Anthropic stock. Shorting is not the only strategy available to avoid losing money.
But you, of course, can buy on their IPO. They need every bagholder they can get :)
surgical_fire 18 minutes ago [-]
If they could have gone public, they probably would have. I hope they do, their S1 might be good meme material.
Companies that reached a level of maturity where going public make sense don't keep doing funding rounds to cover the rate at which they bleed money.
qeternity 1 hours ago [-]
> Venture capitalists & private investors are sucking all of the possible growth and future upside from these companies and then dumping them on retail investors when there's nothing left.
A lot of the money that is deployed by VCs comes from pension funds and asset managers that ultimately manage money for the average Joe.
andriy_koval 39 minutes ago [-]
Is there any evidence of what is the share/volume of such assets involved?
iooi 2 hours ago [-]
So close to being the first kilocorn. A unicorn = 1 billion, this is almost 1k.
someperson 2 hours ago [-]
Hasn't SpaceX achieved that though?
And Saudi Aramco before they IPO'd
Jblx2 1 hours ago [-]
Kibicorn has a nicer ring to it ($1,024 billion).
8f2ab37a-ed6c 1 hours ago [-]
Say you join Anthropic now as an employee. What are the chances of your equity appreciating in value? I don't think we have any historical precedents to this.
bix6 1 hours ago [-]
Well presumably nobody investing in this current round expects anything less than a 3x
hiddencost 53 minutes ago [-]
inflation
I suspect we'll have our first $10T company in the next 2-3 years. That's only doubling.
bix6 58 minutes ago [-]
This is all getting a bit tiring. Show us the S1 already!
mutator 1 hours ago [-]
This did round involve a secondary? If yes, any data to suggest that these secondaries are leading to increased spending outside of housing and propping up the local economy?
jiveturkey 10 minutes ago [-]
There was a secondary sale in April.
whalesalad 2 hours ago [-]
They're going to run out of letters pretty soon.
gruez 2 hours ago [-]
Anyone in finance should know that excel doesn't run out of letters (for columns) either. It just rolls over to AA, AB, etc.
onychomys 36 minutes ago [-]
They eventually stop, Excel has a max column size of 16,384. Not sure what letter combo that would be (ZZZZZZZZZZ or something?), but it does eventually halt.
Boys we got more subsidy for Claude Code Plans! Let the VC financed spending of 1000$ of datacenter cost for 200$ sales price continue!
beavis000 37 minutes ago [-]
great point. i haven't gotten over losing the Uber subsidy!
4ashga 1 hours ago [-]
That announcement is a bit short on details. I suppose that, like in the previous rounds, there are some strings attached and they'll not get all of it at once.
Hynix is participating with a new circular deal. Hynix is also valued at $1 trillion now, which is positively insane.
This scam will implode harder that the housing bubble.
techpression 40 minutes ago [-]
The circulation of money in AI is deeply troubling (NVIDIA being one of the worst I believe), either the bubble doesn’t pop and corruption like this is considered legal (self-inflating money amongst friends) or it pops and the financial hurt will be felt for a decade.
malthaus 1 hours ago [-]
nice, that's another 4 years of spacex data center usage runway!
heloqui 2 hours ago [-]
[dead]
aanet 1 hours ago [-]
I'll have some of that joint they be smokin'
/s
enraged_camel 2 hours ago [-]
Revenue up to $47B. Looking forward to the Ed Zitron hot take on this one! No doubt he will fling more baseless accusations of fraud and other nonsense.
InsideOutSanta 2 hours ago [-]
*run-rate revenue
Without more information, this number is impossible to interpret.
Analemma_ 2 hours ago [-]
This has become a meme which is way out over its skis. Yes, run-rate is not the complete story, but "impossible to interpret" is way overstating the case.
vb-8448 2 hours ago [-]
Unless you have access to Anthropics book your claim is as baseless as Ed Zitron's ...
surgical_fire 28 minutes ago [-]
With all that revenue, while being the most expensive model, they are still unprofitable without trickery.
This really doesn't paint the good picture you seem to imply.
Lionga 2 hours ago [-]
What do they then need another $65B for? To sell 200$ plans that cost them 1000$ to fullfill.
I can have $47B in revenue if I sell something that cost $80B to produce ez pz.
Maxatar 2 hours ago [-]
Revenue is not profit.
NewJazz 2 hours ago [-]
[flagged]
rvz 2 hours ago [-]
This is likely the last fund raise before going public.
You can't spell Anthropic or OpenAI without "IPO". You can remove the "c" in anthropic, reverse it and the first 3 letters is "ipo".
But you certainly can spell both of them without "AGI".
Therefore, "AGI" is a complete scam and it actually was meant to be a giant IPO.
underyx 2 hours ago [-]
you also can't write openai without a pen
bensyverson 2 hours ago [-]
Airtight logic
goodbirb 1 hours ago [-]
Some new form of mystic numerology/gematria-based investment logic?
Imustaskforhelp 1 hours ago [-]
I think your conclusion might be right that AGI does just feel a bunch of hype but the reasoning in middle feels flawed...
like how 13^2=169 and 31^2=961 or 10^2+11^2+12^2=13^2+14^2
Things change fast in this space. Anthropic had a big boost from having the premier coding model for a while, but GPT-5.5 has closed that gap at a time when a lot of Anthropic customers are looking for cheaper alternatives.
Anthropic is coming off of a recent change to their enterprise billing that substantially changed the pricing for many users. They were smart to do the fundraising before the effects of that change could fully propagate.
My wife knows about Claude because that's what I use and we pay for. She uses it also as a result. And inevitably she will talk about Claude to her friends.
Absolutely not, you live in a bubble. Everybody knows about ChatGPT.
Few non-programmers have heard of anthropic or claude, nor do they care. But they all know what ChatGPT is.
Their marketing has been working the high end of the “regular people” market for a good while.
There's no better way to create awareness of a brand than to get it featured in the most popular reality TV show globally at the moment: "Thing Trump Did: Season 2."
[1] Proof: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&q=... (see the massive spike in January of this year)
GPT-5.5 is a bit more expensive than Opus ? Current list prices
Deepseek perhaps would be the top threat on a pure price/performance metric for either of them. It doesn't look like OAI is going for the value play .https://artificialanalysis.ai/?cost=intelligence-vs-cost
Per-token pricing is totally sensible from the provider-perspective on mapping COGS to revenue, but for a consumer, different models will produce more or less tokens, meaning the cost calculation is multi-dimensional.
I don't like Altman and I am still upset about his memory deal last year but he prepared for the current shortages months before anybody else. Meanwhile, Anthropic seems to lack any plans besides third party contracting. IMHO they got very lucky with xAI and Google having spare capacity and willing to rent it. But what about next year?
* NVidia GPU, Google TPU, Apple SoC, etc.
Nvidia has probably monopolized several upstream supplies to manufacture critical chip components for next 2 years, the HBMs and Optics component from LITE, as well as TSM capacity. Let alone those power components they funded themselves.
Let's say you have a genius design, but you will have it close to impossible to compete with Nvidia in getting it to volumes.
Jensen is a player, he isn't fooling around with all these Asian trips just to wine and dine
A short half-life means you are going to quickly dispose of what you have now, anyway. In fact most current datacenters can't even handle Vera Rubin, so I don't think there's short term risk here.
Everyone has critical risk on multiple parts of the supply chain. GPUs and Memory are just things OAI mitigated for.
Power - Bigger bottleneck than GPU or RAM perhaps, New Grid connected capacity is typically 10+ year timescale with lot of regulatory friction. Captive capacity is also quite constrained - now Gas turbines have 7+ year wait time.
There are plenty of hard constraints that OAI cannot easily solve either.
I mean, this is a bit like complaining that McDonalds doesn't have their own herds of cows. OpenAI actually isn't in the business of buying GPUs or running data centres, and it's pretty weird to think that's an advantage (though it comes up constantly on here, as Anthropic keeps eating OpenAI's lunch).
There are many suppliers that are desperate to fight for Anthropics business, and it has shown an agility to embrace whatever advances in the industry come along. Anthropic is now running across a million or so Google TPUv8s, for instance. If tomorrow someone else comes out with a better GPU, they can embrace it in a heartbeat.
All while OpenAI sits on their rapidly depreciating GPUs.
Or...actually they won't, because OpenAI doesn't take business advice from HN. The vast majority of OpenAI's compute is from Microsoft, Oracle and so on. They're smart enough to not become a big hardware purchaser when that isn't their business. The core claim of your comment simply isn't true at all, nor is that the direction OpenAI is moving.
It is not clear that running one's own datacenter is a competitive advantage. Why do you think OpenAI can handle that?
Anthropics relativ longterm contract with xAI def shows that they can fill the capacity vs Musk not. OpenAI and Anthropic are both using a lot of capacity so its fair to say that this is an advantage.
If they stay very close competitive (which they are), your own datacenter does reduce token price.
I see most of the surge here comes FOMO AI spending which will have to be dialed down later half of the year, otherwise those companies will have to layoff to fund their AI bill, which is harmful to their business.
Anthropic grabs its bag at the peak, but feast is over.
I think Google has caught up enough to certainly be a player in the consumer ad driven market.
I also don't think only one foundation model adds up. Now that the trail is blazed a dozen companies can likely make a good enough model. The question is if there's a moat to make it winner take all
They don't seem too far off to me.
Well functioning market is supposed to have many, as in a lot, companies with similar products. To create competition.
He told me they are massively pulling back on the AI stuff.
Right now the lashback is about cost, because that's the most easily measured pain point.
Soon, we'll start seeing a deeper understanding of the quality issues. At that point, it's likely this whole experiment gets firmly put in a bin of the toolbox where it belongs.
Why? Have we figured out the limits of what agents can do?
> OpenAI is much less exposed to tokenmaxxing
I don't think this is true, from my own experience & chatting with my acquaintances.
If a task can be completed with 100k tokens but employees are considered better performers if they complete it with 500k tokens instead… that’s unsustainable and cannot possibly benefit Anthropic in the long term.
At some point, Amazon and Uber and so on and so forth are going to realize that actually, employees using 100k tokens or even 50k tokens is better than 500k and Anthropic’s revenue will fall off a cliff.
And I could be wrong about tokenmaxxing being a Claude specific problem but as far as I can tell, all of the major companies encouraging employees to maximize their token usage are Claude Code users. And the music has to stop on that at some point, whether because the companies run out of money or because they learn better ways of measuring productivity in the AI age. And if tokenmaxxing is what is driving Anthropic’s lead in revenue, it could be catastrophic to lose that, because Anthropic are spending billions of dollars per month on the infrastructure to support it.
If tokenmaxxing is evenly distributed between Anthropic and OpenAI then they’ll both hurt but equal hurt shouldn’t disadvantage either much.
Having been through an IPO before, it was good for employee liquidity, but bad for the culture and long-term success of the company.
FTX bought 8% of Anthropic for $500m in 2021.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/josipamajic/2026/03/18/ftx-owne...
https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-ba...
https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/tender_offer
https://carta.com/learn/equity/liquidity-events/tender-offer...
https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...
(secondary markets are sometimes an option, depending on stock transfer restrictions)
α β γ δ ε ζ η θ ι κ λ μ ν ξ ο π ρ σ τ υ φ χ ψ ω
I also imagine that venture funding rounds have a lower ceiling than the public markets - but at these rounds I'm not so sure!
They cannot raise forever, SpaceX has done more rounds but the timing is most important.
And many more that are 50% of what they were: Snowflake, Coinbase
And many more that went back to private companies and then were sold off: Carbon Black, etc...
I'm actually too lazy to go list out all of them.
But employees, beware, of those gnarly lockup periods post IPO where all the better classed options than yours get to exit.
We got "dumped" Google and Facebook, so... Those probably made up for all the other "dumps".
We also got "dumped" TSLA, which is meme-ing in the trillions at the moment.
You can short Anthropic at IPO if you want...
Situations change.
Because when Facebook IPO'd everyone was saying the stock market was a dumping ground...
Same with Google...
Same with Pets.com and WebVan...
But you, of course, can buy on their IPO. They need every bagholder they can get :)
Companies that reached a level of maturity where going public make sense don't keep doing funding rounds to cover the rate at which they bleed money.
A lot of the money that is deployed by VCs comes from pension funds and asset managers that ultimately manage money for the average Joe.
And Saudi Aramco before they IPO'd
I suspect we'll have our first $10T company in the next 2-3 years. That's only doubling.
https://support.microsoft.com/en-us/office/excel-specificati...
Hynix is participating with a new circular deal. Hynix is also valued at $1 trillion now, which is positively insane.
This scam will implode harder that the housing bubble.
/s
Without more information, this number is impossible to interpret.
This really doesn't paint the good picture you seem to imply.
I can have $47B in revenue if I sell something that cost $80B to produce ez pz.
You can't spell Anthropic or OpenAI without "IPO". You can remove the "c" in anthropic, reverse it and the first 3 letters is "ipo".
But you certainly can spell both of them without "AGI".
Therefore, "AGI" is a complete scam and it actually was meant to be a giant IPO.
like how 13^2=169 and 31^2=961 or 10^2+11^2+12^2=13^2+14^2